Economic Releases

What each one measures, when it lands, and which currencies react. Dates come from the live calendar.

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High impact Non-Farm Payrolls The monthly count of jobs added or lost in the United States, excluding farm work. The most watched single release in currency markets. USD High impact Consumer Price Index The main measure of consumer inflation. Central banks target inflation, so this release shapes what they are expected to do next. USD High impact FOMC Rate Decision The Federal Reserve committee that sets United States interest rates. Eight scheduled meetings a year, and the largest single influence on the dollar. USD High impact Interest Rate Decision The single largest driver of currency prices. Money moves toward currencies that pay more to hold. Multiple currencies Medium PCE Price Index The inflation measure the Federal Reserve actually targets. Published later than CPI, and watched for that reason. USD Medium Gross Domestic Product The broadest measure of an economy’s output. Important, and usually less market-moving than its importance suggests. Multiple currencies Medium Purchasing Managers’ Index A monthly survey of purchasing managers. Above 50 means expansion, below 50 means contraction. Multiple currencies High impact Employment Data Job numbers feed straight into interest rate expectations, which is why they move currencies more than most data. Multiple currencies Medium Retail Sales A monthly read on consumer spending, which is the largest part of most developed economies. Multiple currencies

What moves price is the surprise

Every release carries three numbers: what it was last time, what economists expected, and what was published. The market has already priced in the expectation, so the move comes from the gap between forecast and actual — not from whether the figure was good.

None of these pages says which way price will go. They say what the release measures and what the market is reacting to. How to read the calendar · Full calendar