The three numbers
Previous is what the figure was last time. Forecast is what economists expect. Actual is what was published. Markets have already priced in the forecast, so the move comes from the gap between forecast and actual — the surprise — not from whether the number was good.
Impact ratings
High impact releases are the ones that move price sharply: interest rate decisions, inflation, employment. Medium and low ratings rarely move a major pair by themselves. The rating is a guide to expected volatility, not to direction.
How to use it without predicting
Most of the value is defensive. Knowing that a rate decision lands in twenty minutes explains why the spread just widened, and it is a reason to reconsider a tight stop or a fresh entry. That is useful whether or not you have any view on the outcome.
The currency matters
A release affects the currency it belongs to. United States CPI moves every pair with the dollar in it, and gold, because gold is priced in dollars. A German survey moves the euro and barely touches AUD/JPY.
In short
| Previous | Last published value |
|---|---|
| Forecast | What economists expect |
| Actual | What was published |
| What moves price | The gap between forecast and actual |
Common questions
Should I avoid trading during news?
It is a strategy decision rather than a rule. What is certain is that spreads widen, slippage increases and a tight stop can be triggered by the widening alone. The journal on this site compares your results on high impact days against every other day, which turns the question into a measurement.
Which releases matter most?
Interest rate decisions, inflation and employment, in roughly that order, for the currency they belong to. Non-Farm Payrolls has an outsized reputation because it moves the dollar and therefore almost everything.
Why did price move the wrong way on a good number?
Because the market had already priced in more than was delivered, or because a different part of the release mattered more, or because positioning was one-sided. A single data point does not have a single meaning.
Trading forex and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk. Most retail accounts lose money. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to trade.