Gross Domestic Product

The broadest measure of an economy’s output. Important, and usually less market-moving than its importance suggests.

HomeEconomic CalendarGross Domestic Product
Next release Not yet in the calendar The calendar is filled from the published schedule, usually two weeks ahead.

Dates come from the same table as the economic calendar, which is updated from the published schedule. Times shown are GMT; the calendar converts them.

GDP at a glance

Published byThe national statistics office of each country
Usually releasedQuarterly, with preliminary and revised estimates
Typical impact ratingMedium
CurrencyWhichever country publishes it
Moves gold?Rarely by itself

What it measures

The total value of goods and services produced in an economy over a quarter, published as a percentage change against the previous quarter or the same quarter a year earlier.

Three bites at the same number

Most countries publish a first estimate, then a second, then a final figure as more data arrives. The first estimate moves the market most because it carries the most new information; the revisions rarely move much unless they are large.

Why the reaction is often small

GDP is backwards-looking and slow. By the time a quarter is reported, the employment and inflation data covering the same period have already been released and already moved expectations. It confirms rather than reveals.

When it does matter

At turning points. A first negative quarter, or a figure far from expectations when the market is arguing about whether a slowdown is arriving, can move a currency sharply.

Recent releases

What was published, against what was expected. The market reacts to the gap between forecast and actual, not to whether the number was good.

DateCurrencyActualForecastPrevious
11 Sept 2026 GBP 0.0% 0.3%
7 Sept 2026 JPY 0.4% 0.3%
7 Sept 2026 JPY 2.6% 2.6%
7 Sept 2026 EUR 0.4% 0.4%
3 Sept 2026 CHF 1.7% 0.7%
2 Sept 2026 AUD 0.3% 0.3%
28 Aug 2026 CAD 0.2% 0.3%
28 Aug 2026 EUR 0.2% 0.2%

Questions

Why did the currency barely move on a big GDP miss?

Because the market had already worked out roughly what the quarter looked like from the monthly data. GDP confirms what employment and inflation figures suggested weeks earlier.

Which GDP estimate matters most?

The first, because it contains the most new information. Later revisions move price only when they are unusually large.

Is GDP a high impact release?

It is usually rated medium to high depending on the country and whether it is the first estimate. The calendar shows the rating for each release.

Did this release cost you money?

The journal on this site records the date of every trade and compares your results on days with a high impact release against every other day. That turns a general worry about trading the news into a figure about your own record.

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