PCE Price Index

The inflation measure the Federal Reserve actually targets. Published later than CPI, and watched for that reason.

HomeEconomic CalendarPCE Price Index
Next release Not yet in the calendar The calendar is filled from the published schedule, usually two weeks ahead.

Dates come from the same table as the economic calendar, which is updated from the published schedule. Times shown are GMT; the calendar converts them.

PCE at a glance

Published byUS Bureau of Economic Analysis
Usually releasedMonthly, usually the last week of the month
Typical impact ratingMedium
CurrencyUSD
Moves gold?Commonly, since gold is priced in dollars

What it is

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index measures the change in prices of goods and services bought by households, using a basket that adjusts as spending patterns change. It is published alongside personal income and personal spending figures.

Why the Federal Reserve prefers it

Its basket updates as people substitute between goods, where the CPI basket is more fixed. The Fed’s two percent target is expressed in terms of core PCE, which is why this release carries weight despite arriving weeks after CPI has already told most of the story.

Why the market reacts less

By the time PCE is published, CPI and the producer price index have already given a strong indication of what it will show. Surprises are smaller and less frequent, so the reaction is usually more muted than to CPI.

Core again

As with CPI, the core measure excluding food and energy is the one that matters most, because it is the one the target is written against.

Recent releases

What was published, against what was expected. The market reacts to the gap between forecast and actual, not to whether the number was good.

DateCurrencyActualForecastPrevious
26 Aug 2026 USD 0.2% 0.1%
30 Jul 2026 USD 0.2% 0.3%

Questions

Is PCE more important than CPI?

To the Federal Reserve, yes — it is the measure the target is written against. To the market on the day, usually no, because CPI arrives first and has already moved expectations.

When is PCE published?

Monthly, generally in the last week of the month, at 08:30 New York time. The calendar shows the exact date.

Why do CPI and PCE differ?

Different baskets, different weights, and PCE adjusts as spending patterns shift. PCE inflation is usually slightly lower than CPI as a result.

Did this release cost you money?

The journal on this site records the date of every trade and compares your results on days with a high impact release against every other day. That turns a general worry about trading the news into a figure about your own record.

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