Consumer Price Index

The main measure of consumer inflation. Central banks target inflation, so this release shapes what they are expected to do next.

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CPI at a glance

Published byThe national statistics office of each country
Usually releasedMonthly, dates vary by country
Typical impact ratingHigh
CurrencyUSD
Moves gold?Commonly, since gold is priced in dollars

What it measures

The change in the price of a basket of goods and services bought by households. It is published both as a month-on-month change and a year-on-year change, and the year-on-year figure is usually the one quoted as "the inflation rate".

Headline and core

Headline CPI includes everything. Core CPI strips out food and energy, whose prices swing for reasons that have little to do with underlying inflation. Central banks watch core more closely, and the market often reacts to core rather than to the headline.

Why it dominates

Almost every major central bank has an inflation target, commonly around two percent. An inflation print away from that target changes what the market expects the bank to do with interest rates, and interest rate expectations move currencies more than anything else.

Every country publishes one

United States CPI is the most watched because of the dollar, but euro area, UK and Japanese inflation prints move their own currencies the same way. The calendar shows which currency each release belongs to.

Recent releases

What was published, against what was expected. The market reacts to the gap between forecast and actual, not to whether the number was good.

DateCurrencyActualForecastPrevious
11 Sept 2026 USD 3.4% 3.4%
11 Sept 2026 USD 0.4% 0.1%
11 Sept 2026 USD 2.4% 2.5%
11 Sept 2026 USD 0.2% 0.2%
12 Aug 2026 USD 3.4% 3.5%
12 Aug 2026 USD 0.1% -0.4%
12 Aug 2026 USD 2.5% 2.6%
12 Aug 2026 USD 0.2% 0.0%

Questions

What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?

Core excludes food and energy prices. Those two are volatile for reasons unrelated to underlying inflation — weather, oil supply — so core is treated as the better guide to the trend, and it is what central banks watch most closely.

Which CPI release matters most?

The one belonging to the currency you are trading. United States CPI has the widest reach because the dollar is on one side of most pairs and because gold is priced in dollars.

Is higher inflation good for a currency?

Not by itself. It raises the chance of higher interest rates, which tends to support a currency, but very high inflation signals economic problems that work the other way. The market reaction depends on what was already expected.

How is CPI different from PCE?

They measure the same thing with different baskets and different weights. The Federal Reserve prefers PCE as its target measure; the market watches CPI more closely because it is published earlier.

Did this release cost you money?

The journal on this site records the date of every trade and compares your results on days with a high impact release against every other day. That turns a general worry about trading the news into a figure about your own record.

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