What the release contains
The US employment report is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, usually on a Friday morning New York time — check the calendar rather than trusting a memory of the date. It carries three headline figures at once: non-farm payrolls, which is the change in the number of jobs; the unemployment rate; and average hourly earnings, which is wage growth.
Why the three can disagree
Payrolls come from a survey of employers; the unemployment rate comes from a separate survey of households. They are two different measurements of the same month, so they can and do point in opposite directions. A strong payroll number alongside a rising unemployment rate is not a contradiction or an error — it is two surveys, and the market has to decide within seconds which one it believes.
Wages are often the number that matters
Jobs added tells a central bank about growth; wage growth tells it about inflation, because pay rises feed into prices. In a period when inflation is the concern, a strong payroll figure with weak wage growth can move a currency down rather than up. Reading only the headline number is how people end up on the wrong side of a release that went their way.
Why the first move reverses so often
Liquidity thins out before the release and the first prints are thin, wide and frequently wrong. Traders react to the headline, then to the detail, then to the revision of the previous month, which is published in the same release and is sometimes larger than the new figure. Three reactions in ten minutes is a normal shape, and none of them is a trend.
Non-farm, and why
Farm work is seasonal, so including it would make the figure swing every spring and autumn for reasons that say nothing about the economy. Leaving it out is the whole reason for the awkward name.
In short
| Published by | The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly |
|---|---|
| Three numbers | Payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings |
| Two surveys | Employers for payrolls, households for the rate |
| Often decisive | Wage growth, because it feeds inflation |
| Also in the release | A revision of the previous month |
| First move | Thin, wide, and frequently reversed |
Common questions
Why is it called non-farm?
Agricultural work is seasonal, so it is excluded to stop the figure swinging every year for reasons unrelated to the economy.
Payrolls beat the forecast but the dollar fell. Why?
Usually because another part of the release was weak — wages, the unemployment rate, or a downward revision to last month — and the market weighed that instead.
Can I trade the spike?
The spread is at its widest and slippage is real, so the price you get is not the price you saw. Waiting for the level the release leaves behind is the version with a stop that means something.
Trading forex and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk. Most retail accounts lose money. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to trade.