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Create AccountTrading Expectancy Calculator
Find what an average trade is worth, from your own win rate and average win and loss.
Your Result
The calculation runs in your browser. Rates used for currency conversion are indicative — check your broker for the exact figure.
Expectancy is the single number that says whether a strategy makes money. It combines how often you win with how much you win and lose, which is why a 35% win rate can be excellent and a 70% win rate can be a disaster. Neither figure means anything alone.
Take the numbers from your journal rather than from memory. Traders consistently overestimate their win rate and underestimate their average loss, and expectancy is sensitive to both — which is exactly why it is worth calculating rather than guessing.
When to use it
- At the end of every month, on the trades you actually took.
- When deciding whether to keep a strategy or stop trading it.
- When comparing two setups that feel similar but perform differently.
- Before increasing size, since positive expectancy is what makes size worth adding.
The average outcome of one trade, weighted by how often each outcome happens.
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss)
Expectancy in R = Expectancy ÷ Average Loss
Profit Factor = (Win Rate × Average Win) ÷ (Loss Rate × Average Loss)- Expectancy in R is the portable version. A strategy worth 0.35R makes 0.35 times whatever you risk, on average, regardless of account size.
- Profit factor above 1 means the strategy makes money. Above 1.5 is good; above 2 usually means the sample is too small.
- A single large win distorts the average. Check the median too if one trade is carrying the number.
A journal showing a 45% win rate, an average win of $300 and an average loss of $150, over 40 trades a month.
Working: (0.45 × $300) − (0.55 × $150) = $135 − $82.50 = $52.50 per trade. Over 40 trades that is $2,100 a month — provided the averages hold, which is what the next month tests.
What is a good expectancy?
Anything positive makes money over enough trades. In R terms, 0.2R is respectable and 0.5R is strong. The consistency of the number matters more than its size.
How many trades before I trust it?
At least thirty, preferably a hundred. Below that a couple of outliers set the average, and the figure says more about luck than about the strategy.
My expectancy is positive but I am losing money.
Usually commission, swap and slippage — none of which appear in the averages unless you recorded them. Recalculate using net results rather than gross.
Should I include breakeven trades?
Yes, as trades with a result of zero. Leaving them out inflates the win rate and makes the strategy look better than the account does.
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